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談臺灣大選

10/24/2015

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瀟楓
如果大家可以暫時放下個人意氣和執著,冷靜想一想:

1, 爲什麽國民黨要換下洪秀柱?黨内鬥爭的解釋太過膚淺;黨的理念之爭?縱觀國民黨内還有人有國家民族觀念嗎?洪會讓立委選情崩盤?也許是拿的出的合理理由之一,但絕不是最根本的原因;至於洪秀柱的“一中同表”和“終極統一”,並不比朱立論,連戰的兩岸主張有什麽新意,也不是國民黨下決心換掉洪的根本原因。請注意:这次倒洪是從下而上的黨内意志,再講的清楚一點是國民黨内新生代發起的。他們在想什麽?他們要什麽?

2, 洪秀柱被換下,誰的損失最大?國民黨會面臨一些眼前的麻煩,但從結果和未來著眼,對國民黨是利遠大于弊;對民進黨,蔡英文怕不是好消息,很可能民進黨期待的大選選票過半,立委席次過半,或者接近2/3的席次,一面倒的大勝,怕是要落空了。最不高興的要數宋楚瑜和親民黨,他們要蠶食國民黨和拉攏國民黨本土派的如意算盤要落空了,宋先生要麽順從泛藍民意與國民黨整合,要麽重蹈前次大選的覆轍。

3, 對兩岸關係,更是無所謂了!臺灣的政治公式:一个不願意統一的國民黨 = 或者略等於 一個不敢台獨的民進黨,依據國民黨馬英九執政8年的所作所爲, 大陸的實質利益和未來統一大業,即不能寄望國民黨,也不能寄望民進黨,只能,也必須要操之在我!在这个意義上,蔡英文當選對大陸不一定是个坏事。

以上純屬個人愚見,供大家參考,望不吝賜教。
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